ABSTRACT
The development of financial technology has promoted the innovation and digital transformation of commercial banks. Through digital transformation, commercial banks can improve bank efficiency and operational capabilities. Through empirical analysis, this study explored the relationship between digital bank transformation and commercial bank operating capabilities and how COVID-19, bank categories, and enterprise life cycles affect the relationship between digital bank transformation and commercial bank operating capabilities. This study selected data from China's commercial banks from 2011 to 2021 and used the regression method of fixed effects to conduct an empirical analysis. The research results show that the digital transformation of banks has improved the operational capabilities of commercial banks. Further analysis showed that the emergence of COVID-19 has negatively affected their relationship. At the same time, compared with rural commercial banks and commercial banks in the recession and phase-out periods, non-rural commercial banks and commercial banks in the growth and maturity stages play a more vital moderating role in the impact of the digital transformation of banks on the financial performance of commercial banks. The main research object of this study is Chinese commercial banks, and this study examines the results of banks' digital transformation and enriches the research on digital transformation. At the same time, this study is helpful to investors who like investment banks and has good practical significance.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic is the biggest global health crisis in years. China is the first market primarily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with unprecedented lockdown measures bringing real estate and other economic activities to a standstill. This study has two objectives: (1) to identify the risks critical to the risk management of commercial real estate (CRE) development projects based on the project life cycle stages and (2) to identify the stages most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the risk factors at different stages. Three rounds of the Delphi study were conducted with nine experts involved in the construction project. The findings indicate that the construction, lease and sale phases are prone to significant risks. Additionally, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) identified ‘health and safety risk' as the most critical risk factor during the construction phase and ‘marketing and payback risk' as the most critical risk factor during the lease and sale phase. This study enhanced the effectiveness of risk management practices for implementing CRE development projects in China.
ABSTRACT
The article investigates potential output and output gap modelling and estimation in the Czech Republic in the period 1996-2021, including the global recession from 2008 and the recent crisis caused by government measures against the COVID-19 pandemic. The unobserved components (UC) methodology is applied, coefficients are estimated by the maximum likelihood method, unobserved variables are estimated using the Kalman filter. The standard UC model is modified in an original way to nonlinearly describe the hysteresis effect by allowing the output gap to have an asymmetrical influence on potential output. The econometric model verification proved significance of the hysteresis effect and showed a substantial inertia of negative consequences of both crises. Predictions of an impact of the War in Ukraine on the gap were also calculated and the uncertainty associated with these predictions was quantified.
ABSTRACT
This article connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert, Horn, & Paetz, 2019);(ii) the unemployment‐output trade‐off is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behaviour of fiscal deficit shocks and the unemployment‐output trade‐off is studied in this article using a time‐varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression (VAR) with stochastic volatility techniques applied to the analysis of data from Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States of America. We confirm the trade‐off heterogeneity across country, and its time‐varying nature across time, showing in addition its fluctuation around a long‐run reference value. We document significant short‐run impacts of fiscal shocks on the unemployment‐output trade‐off which, based on the experience of the Global Financial Crisis, becomes larger in periods of economic turmoil. Policy‐wise, the rebalancing of public finances may have unexpected adverse effects on job creation if implemented during slumps, precisely when the labour market sensitivity with respect to the performance of the product market is likely to be more acute. This message is particularly relevant in the aftermath of the Covid‐19 pandemic.
ABSTRACT
PurposeIn this paper, the authors explore how Edinburgh's key Festivals have adapted to the COVID-19 pandemic. Their response presents the emergence of more innovative festival delivery models and a different imagining of the festival space.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a qualitative mixed methods research design involving 13 in-depth semi-structured interviews with Edinburgh's Festival Directors and other cultural and policy stakeholders as part of a University-funded stand-alone research project. The interviews were supplemented with participant observation at festivals virtually and in-person to experience new and emerging formats of festival content delivery, adherence to Scottish Government guidelines on COVID-19 safety, and to experience attending festivals during a pandemic.FindingsThe authors present findings on how Edinburgh's Festivals have responded to Covid-19 and how they have adapted – and in some cases reimagined – their business models to survive.Originality/valueThe authors propose a new theoretical framework that establishes a model for how festivals can approach risk management within their business model, focused on the ‘3R's' – respond, resilience and reimagine –with communication and support being central to this framework.
ABSTRACT
This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871-2016 using the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE: To study the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination on the menstrual cycle in response to concerns that the vaccines cause menstrual cycle disturbances and affect potential pregnancy. METHOD: An online survey-based cross-sectional study was conducted from November 20 to 27, 2021. Study participants were women of reproductive age (15-49 years) and the study tool used was a semi-structured pretested questionnaire. A total of 300 participants were recruited for the study. RESULTS: The mean age (± standard deviation) of the participants was 26.2 ± 4.8 years. 232 participants (77.3%) were unmarried. Only 30 participants (10%) reported a change in the regularity of menstruation and 33 (11%) participants reported a change in cycle duration after vaccination. CONCLUSION: In the present study, a change in the regularity of menstrual cycles was reported in 30 (10%) of the participants and a change in the duration of the cycle was reported in 11% of the participants (33). There was a significant association between the type of vaccine used and the changes in the menstrual cycle after vaccination. However, its long-term health implications are yet to be determined.
ABSTRACT
This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association. The methodology is based on two pillars: 1) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and 2) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-1975 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-1993, and the Great Recession 2008-2009. For the Covid recession, the peak is dated in the last quarter of 2019 and the trough in the second quarter of 2020.
ABSTRACT
PurposeThe main motivation of the present study is to understand the severity of the effect of health shock on Iran's oil economy and analyze the role of government under these conditions.Design/methodology/approachDynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models can show the precise interactions between market decision-makers in the context of general equilibrium. Since the duration of the virus outbreak and its effect on the economy is not known, it is more appropriate to use these models.FindingsThe results of the survey of hands-on policies scenarios compared to the state of hands-off policy indicate that the effect of government expending shocks on the economy under pandemic disease conditions has much less feedback on macroeconomic variables.Originality/valueAs a proposed policy, it is recommended that the government play a stabilizing role under pandemic disease conditions.Key messages There is no study regarding health shock and its economic effects in Iran using DSGE models. Also, in foreign studies, the health shock in an oil economy has not been modeled.The general idea in the present study is how the prevalence of a pandemic infectious disease affects the dynamics of macroeconomic variables.In three different scenarios, according to the persistence of health disaster risk and the deterioration rate of health capital due to this shock, the model is simulated.In modeling pandemic diseases, quarantine hours are considered as part of the total time of individuals.According to the research findings, it is recommended that the government, as a policy-maker, play a stabilizing role under pandemic crises conditions.
ABSTRACT
Alami and Dixon instead treat state capitalism not as a well-defined analytical category but rather a "flexible means of problematising...trajectories of state intervention and the role that it plays in the (geo) political re-organisation of global capitalism" ([1]: xx). One way this query might be posed is where in the world the phenomena described under the rubric of state capitalism are most pronounced or perhaps newly apparent;in which countries or in what parts of the world do we see a more muscular or interventionist state? Keywords: State capitalism;hegemonic cycles;macrohistorical sociology EN State capitalism hegemonic cycles macrohistorical sociology 770 773 4 05/16/23 20230501 NES 230501 The term "state capitalism" dates from the late nineteenth century, when it was coined by Marxists seeking to understand the growing role of the state as an owner of capital and orchestrator of production in European countries. [Extracted from the article] Copyright of Environment & Planning A is the property of Sage Publications Inc. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)
ABSTRACT
This paper investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on 8 different indices of industrial production (IIPs) for three major European countries: France, Germany, and the UK. The analysis is based on applying a combination of Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) algorithms, in a way that allows for the proper separation of the trend and seasonal subcycles of the IIPs. The main purpose is to illustrate how to carry out the procedure of the correct decomposition by SSA for the specific series. The accurately extracted trends are analysed and the influence of the pandemic is calculated. The results confirm that necessary goods, such as food and utilities, have low income elasticity of demand since the effect of COVID-19 is negligible for these IIPs. However, for the IIPs of less essential products, the negative impact is much more extreme, although the severity varies depending on several factors, which also aligns with the economic theory © 2023, Statistics and its Interface.All Rights Reserved.
ABSTRACT
Research background: The globalization trend has inevitably enhanced the connectivity of global financial markets, making the cyclicality of financial activities and the spread of market imbalances have received widespread attention, especially after the global financial crisis. Purpose of the article: To reduce the negative effects of the contagiousness of the financial cycles, it is necessary to study the persistence of financial cycles and carve out the total connectedness, spillover paths, and sources of risks on a global scale. In addition, understanding the relationship between the financial cycle and economic development is an important way to prevent financial crises. Methods: This paper adopts the nonlinear smoothing transition autoregressive (STAR) model to extract cyclical and phase characteristics of financial cycles based on 24 countries during 1971Q1?2015Q4, covering developed and developing countries, the Americas, Europe, and Asia regions. In addition, the frequency connectedness approach is used to measure the connectedness of financial cycles and the relationship between the global financial cycle and the global economy. Findings & value added: The analysis reveals that aggregate financial cycles persist for 13.3 years for smoothed and 8.7 years for unsmoothed on average. The national financial cycles are asynchronous and exhibit more prolonged expansions and faster contractions. The connectedness of financial cycles is highly correlated with systemic crises and contributes to the persistence and harmfulness of shocks. It is mainly driven by short-term components and exhibits more pronounced interconnectedness within regions than across regions. During the financial crisis, the global financial cycle movements precede and are longer than the business fluctuations. Based on the study, some policy implications are presented. This paper emphasizes the impact of systemic crises on the persistence of financial cycles and their connectedness, which contributes to refining research related to the coping mechanisms of financial crises.
ABSTRACT
Low-carbon tourism is an important way for the tourism industry to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. In order to promote the development of Guilin as a world-class tourism city and ensure the sustainable development of the tourism industry in Guilin, this paper combines the concept of carbon footprint and the theory of life cycle to build a tourists' carbon footprint life cycle analysis model of Guilin. Taking tourists in Guilin as an example, the composition and changes of tourists' carbon footprint are dynamically analyzed. The research shows that: (1) The overall tourism carbon footprint of Guilin showed an upward trend during 2011–2019. From 2020 to 2022, due to the impact of COVID-19, Guilin's tourism carbon footprint has decreased significantly. The per capita carbon footprint of tourism in Guilin showed a downward trend from 2011 to 2022;(2) The order of the size of Guilin's tourism carbon footprint is tourism transportation > tourism catering > tourism accommodation > tourism activities;(3) From 2011 to 2022, the carbon footprint of tourism transportation in Guilin showed an obvious narrowing state, while the carbon footprint of tourism accommodation, tourism activities, and tourism catering showed an obvious expanding trend. Based on the characteristics of the carbon footprint of Guilin's tourism and the current situation of the development of Guilin's tourism, this paper puts forward suggestions on reducing carbon emissions, forms a new tool for evaluating and constructing low-carbon tourism, and provides a scientific basis and practical reference significance for the sustainable development of low-carbon tourism in Guilin.
ABSTRACT
The economic and public health crisis caused by COVID-19 was devastating and disproportionately hurt Blacks and Hispanics and some other groups. Unemployment rates and other measures of material hardship were higher and increased more during the crisis among Blacks and Hispanics than among non-Hispanic Whites. Congress authorized a historic policy response, incorporating both targeted and universal supports, and expanding both the level and duration of benefits. This response yielded the remarkable result of an estimated decline in the Supplemental Poverty Measure between 2019 and 2020. We study administrative data to investigate the impact of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) during the crisis. We find that participation in SNAP increased more in counties that experienced a larger employment shock. By contrast, the increase in total SNAP benefits was inversely related to the employment shock. The SNAP benefit increases were less generous to Black and Hispanic SNAP participants than to White.
ABSTRACT
By regarding the Chinese financial and economic sectors as a system, this article studies the stock volatility spillover in the system and explores its effects on the overall performance of the macroeconomy in China. The recent outbreak of COVID-19, U.S.-China trade friction, and three historical financial turbulences are involved to distinguish the changes in the spillover in these distinct crises, which has seldom been unveiled in the literature. By considering that the stock volatility spillover may vary over distinct timescales, the spillovers are disclosed through innovatively constructing the multi-scale spillover networks, followed by connectedness computation, based on variational mode decomposition (VMD) and generalized vector autoregression (GVAR) process. Our empirical analysis first demonstrates the different levels of increases in the total sectoral volatility spillover and changes in the roles of the sectors in the system under the aforementioned crises. Besides, the increases in the sectoral spillover in the long-term are verified to negatively impact the macroeconomy and can thereby act as warning signals.
ABSTRACT
This study pretends to contribute to a better understanding of the COVID-19 dynamics through the non-parametric technique of phase synchronization by comparing the fifteen most affected countries by the number of positive cases plus China, where the first outbreak took place in December 2019. It was possible to state the number of cycles and waves for each one of the studied countries and to determine periods of synchronization between them. The results also showed the average duration of the cycles and some coincidences regarding Nason (2020);Bontempi (2021);Coccia (2021);Rusinol, Zammit, Itarte, Fores, Martinez-Puchol, Girones, Borrego, Corominas, and Bofill-Mas (2021). This study is limited by the reliability of the number of positive cases reported by national governments and health authorities because of an insufficient number of tests and a great number of asymptomatic persons but presents a legit alternative to predict the evolution of the pandemic in a country due to the forward looking behavior of another one, therefore studies like this could be useful to implement contention measures and to prepare the health systems in advance.
ABSTRACT
The consequences of graduating in a recession could be severe and long-lasting. Bachelor's graduates can, however, avoid entering the labour market by continuing their education. Using a Norwegian dataset containing information on all graduates and their applications to and enrolment in master's degree programmes over a 15-year period, we find that a one percentage point increase in the field-specific unemployment rate results in a 6.5 percentage points increase in applications and a 3.9 percentage points increase in enrolment. Moreover, using a survey of the 2020 bachelor's graduates cohort, that is, the Covid-19 cohort, we find evidence indicating that those pushed into a master's degree by conditions in the labour market differ substantially from those whose decision to enrol in a master's degree is not driven by labour market conditions.
ABSTRACT
Globalization has prompted enterprises worldwide to increasingly seek the optimal supply chain configuration. However, outsourcing, shortened product life cycles, and a reduced supply base severely weaken supply chain risk tolerance. With the emergence of blockchain, enterprises see an opportunity to mitigate supply chain risks. The purpose of our research is to explore supply chain managers' intention to adopt blockchain technology from the perspective of supply chain risk management. Using a survey sample of 203 managers in China and the USA, we explored the impact of four perceived benefits of blockchain technology on supply chain risk resistance by extending the technology acceptance model. The results show that the traceability, transparency, information sharing, and decentralization of blockchain can enhance the perceived usefulness of blockchain in supply chain resilience and responsiveness, and the ability to withstand disruption risks and supply and demand coordination risks encountered in the supply chain, thus promoting the adoption of the technology. In addition, the relationships between supply chain resilience and blockchain technology adoption and between supply chain responsiveness and blockchain technology adoption are more salient for managers with high levels of uncertainty avoidance.
ABSTRACT
The last century has witnessed European commercial aviation flourishing at the cost of environmental degradation by boosting greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. However, the outcry for net-zero emissions compels the sector's supply chain to a minimum 55% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions below the 1990 level by 2030 and zero CO2 emissions by 2050. This study examines a European environmental sustainability path toward a green commercial aviation supply chain. Driven by literature and a review of related documents, two propositions were advanced to orient perspectives on the relationship between pollution and the commercial aviation supply chain and actions being taken toward environmental sustainability. In semi-structured interviews, seventeen aerospace associates endorsed pollution sources in the commercial aviation supply chain during the four stages of the aircraft life cycle, including extracting the raw materials, manufacturing, ground and flight operations, and end-of-service. They recommended transitioning into green commercial aviation through the widespread deployment of innovative technologies, from modifying airframes to changing aviation fuel, utilizing alternative propulsion systems, adopting circular manufacturing, and improving air traffic management.
ABSTRACT
The modern business environment in which the world economy operates brings increasing unpredictability, which makes it difficult to plan and implement business continuity management. Recent examples are the emergence and spread of the corona virus and the war in Ukraine. Market-oriented economies are characterized by a reduction in the life cycle of companies and competition in saturated industrial sectors. Integration processes, takeovers and mergers, represent one of the ways of implementing development strategies of organizations and most often take place in waves and in crisis periods due to economic shocks and the influence of internal and external factors on the organization. Mentioned strategy is used by companies in order to acquire the necessary capital and resources in an effort to establish their position on the market more quickly and efficiently and to carry out activities of greater volume and income for the purpose of survival and faster progress. Due to the trends of M&A and the growing inconsistency and uncertainty in business, the aim of this paper is to highlight the consequences that M&A brings when it comes to managing the business continuity of a "newly integrated" organization. The impact on employees, business processes and general functioning and management of business continuity during and especially after integration will be observed. In order to fulfill the objective of the paper, the empirical part of the paper uses the Delphi method, in which the source of data is based on statistical collection and then the interpretation of the answers to the set questionnaire from a number of experts in the field of business continuity management, the banking sector, auditing and several business units that have recently passed M&A activities in order to consolidate attitudes about the consequences that integration processes bring for business continuity management and the organization as a whole. The paper will analyze the consequences of mergers and acquisitions for the management of business continuity, identify its advantages and disadvantages, and present recommendations for future such processes in the concluding remarks.